DNV’s Technology Outlook 2020 report highlights technologies that could have great impact in the maritime and energy sectors.
“We firmly believe that technology is a vital part of the solution for many of the global and industry challenges facing us today,” says Elisabeth Harstad, Managing Director of DNV’s Research and Innovation Unit which published the report. “Also, we believe that the best way to be prepared for the future is to have a broad view over technologies from the many industry sectors which we serve. We don’t claim to have all the answers, but we have based our opinions on our expertise and competence.”
Technology Outlook 2020 looks at future technologies in four main areas: shipping, fossil energy, renewable and nuclear energy, and power systems. The report covers seven global megatrends (see side bar text) which DNV believes will effect developments in the selected areas. In addition, the report explores four scenarios, a combination of drivers which form possible alternative futures.
No techno revolution
Commenting on the key summary points, Ms Harstad says “There is little of that which will characterise society in 2020 that is not already in the labs or on the drawing boards. Technological developments take long, slow steps. Technological evolution is more likely than technological revolution, but we can expect the technology to be used in new areas – for example, we think that nanotechnology will be important for developing renewable energy. Information Communication Technology will permeate all technology.”
Fossil fuels will by far be the largest part of the energy mix also in 2020 and Ms Harstad believes the focus will be on increasing efficiency and improving the environmental footprint from operations. “We will see increasingly more advanced subsea oil and gas production systems being used for separation and boosting, and drilling and intervention technology will diversify, apply smarter monitoring and increase efficiency.”
Shale game changer
She continues, “Unconventional oil and gas, mainly dominated by shale gas, will be a considerable part of the energy mix, and the challenges related to water treatment will have to be solved. Future refineries will face stricter emission requirements, and they will have to be far more ‘intelligent’ then they are today.”
While CO2 capture and storage technologies are maturing and becoming more cost efficient, the large scale use of them in 2020 will be limited, predicts Ms Harstad. “Development of technologies for CO2 utilisation – turning CO2 into useful products – will be developed, but will probably struggle to become commercial in 2020.
Wind behind renewables
Turning to renewables, Ms Harstad says “the decade for introduction to the low carbon economy is underway…we will see cost reduction and efficiency improvements for the renewables, but the deployment of these will depend a lot on infrastructure developments.
“For wind energy, we will see offshore and onshore going in different directions: onshore staying about the same size as they are today, though becoming smarter. Commercial offshore turbines might reach a capacity of 10MW. Solar heat and power will grow,” she predicts.
Power systems will be key
“Power transmission systems will be one of the major issues in the transition process towards the low carbon economy,” argues Ms Harstad and adds, “Cross national super grids, offshore transmission grids to bring wind energy to shore, smart grids and managing variable output due to integration of renewables are all part of the solution.”
Sustainable shipping solutions
Innovative ships designs and port solutions are also covered in the report. “We will see concepts with modified hull forms, using air bubble lubrication, air cavity systems, and new types of surface materials and maybe ballast free ships,” says Ms Harstad and adds, “It is likely that we will see the application of more environmentally friendly fuels like LNG and to a lesser degree biofuels. Nuclear will also come into play in the future but will initially struggle to get public acceptance.
“Hybrid propulsion – the Prius of the Seas – might also be a reality in commercial shipping in 2020, in particular for ships with variable power demands,” adds Ms Harstad.
Sustainable coastal communities
The Technology Outlook 2020 report also describes an idea for a new sustainable coastal community, accommodating millions of people, using to a large extent the technology advancements from the energy and maritime sectors.
“An essential aspect of a sustainable future is how we, as humans, live and act in daily life. At the same time, the world population is set to grow, not least in Asia, so how can we accommodate millions of people sustainably, yet at an acceptable standard of living?” asks Ms Harstad.
You can read the report and learn more about DNV’s sustainable coastal community concept on www.dnv.com/foresight